Rapid-Growth Markets Forecast: April 2013

At last, there are signs that stability could be returning to the global economy. The risks to growth are receding and the world economy is increasingly influenced by rapid-growth markets (RGMs).

We expect growth in the RGMs to accelerate from 4.7% in 2012 to 6.0% in 2014.

Key highlights:

World economy more globalized than ever

  • International trade will drive world growth and RGMs will play an increasing role in the world economy over the coming decade.
  • The shipping industry will play a critical role in supporting the increase in trade.
  • Southeast Asia has lowered many trade barriers in recent years, improving its prospects.

As RGM middle class expands, trade in services will rise sharply

  • The wealthier populations will demand more banking, insurance and other financial services.
  • The machinery and transport equipment sector will be the largest contributor to growth in goods trade.

Mexico and Chile weathered the global downturn, but Brazil struggles

  • Brazil’s recovery is still fragile, with growth falling short of 1% last year, but the economy is expected to pick up.
  • Mexico and Chile grew more strongly last year and carry strong momentum into 2013.
  • More manufacturing trade will provide new channels for growth in Latin America and help protect the region from commodity price fluctuations.

Weak Eurozone demand weighs on emerging Europe, but Turkey is strong

  • Middle Eastern countries are trading increasingly with other RGMs.
  • Turkey is set to make the most of its central location between Europe and Asia.
  • Economic integration is boosting activity in Africa.

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