In a global context, the top 25 economies selected for our forecast have the long-term potential to generate strong business opportunities.
But even the rapid-growth markets (RGMs) have not escaped unharmed from the uncertainty and fragility that impacted developed economies.
In January, we predicted that the expansion of the RGMs would slow from 6.1% in 2011 to 5.3% this year, before accelerating to 6.7% in 2013. Now, we are expecting the RGMs to grow by 4.5% this year and 5.5% next year — a trend caused largely by the deterioration of the wider international outlook.
- The international backdrop has deteriorated, impacting the outlook for RGMs’ exports and their ability to attract DI.
- While the slowdown has been worse than expected, the RGMs have policy tools to help support growth.
- Further marked commodity and currency rises would threaten the RGM growth outlook.
- We reviewed our 25 RGMs based on the economic, social and demographic criteria for selection. While no changes have been made, Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Philippines stand out as non-RGMs that should be monitored closely for addition.
- Indonesia, Turkey and Vietnam stand out as high-potential economies alongside China and India.